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Sunday, 25 May 2014

2014-04-27 [Info] 大家对 PE Growth (PEG) 的交流与见解

source:[My Market Notes]


大家对 PE Growth (PEG) 的交流与见解 (4) [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

作者:夜孩子
日期:11/6/2010 23:31

第一,我只是说明这个准则的可靠性。买了高PE公司,业绩持平,PE依然不跌的公司,就以经让我对这个准则的可靠程度减低。我不是说买PE高的好公司是个大错。
第二,我只是说明我个人所向往的公司的特征,只是说它不是我长期持股要的特征。
第三,即使该公司年年派100%盈利,年年派多多股息,别人我不知道,但我拿了股息,看见PE30-40,即使派完100% EPS,加码时的 DY 也只有2.5-3.3%,实在买不下手。

我也许不明白 PEG,但至少我明白这几个特征不符合我的要求

其实我去年也有做过一个试验,证明只要是成长率一样(eg.15%),然后合理PE年年不变,那即使是个PE15的公司或是PE20的公司,长期买进的 话,都是一样的。唯有第一年买进时的代价高一点。2-10年整体上是没有分别。也就是说,公司A PE15,15% 成长,公司B,PE20,15% 成长。只要两家公司年年保持同样的合理PE,就是说到最后依然是 A PE15,B PE20,你会发现,总回酬是一样。所以,我并没有说买高PE的公司不好。

我只是想要避免突然市场对它的评级下调而承受高 PE 的风险罢了。如果市场年年都给它PE20,那肯定不成问题。即使你买进时是PE40,只要年年成长15%,十年后依然PE40,你会发现除了第一年的代价 有分别,十年二十年的回酬几乎是一样。我只是不希望有那个“万一”。

不信的话,把成长15%公司的EPS 放进 Excel,年年保持同样的合理PE,我从 PE 20,成长15%,及PE10,成长15% 的公司,拉长到20年,结论是几乎没有分别。但我还是不希望有“万一”。 

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